Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Telimele, Kindia - Guinea

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Chico, California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Pinal County (Margo Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Safford, Arizona - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Alachua, FL Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Chittagong - Bangladesh

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Twentyeight

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Seroja

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Excelsior Springs, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 44 km SSW of Gongdanglegi Kulon, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 168 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 21 km S of Sumberpucung, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - South Shetland Islands

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 195 km N of Madang, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - South Pacific Ocean

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - British Columbia, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Cusco, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Uruguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Quilotoa, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Bjaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dominican Republic

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valle Cannobina Municipality, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern Africa

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Butembo, DRC

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    8 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    8 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 4, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 26S (Seroja)…is located approximately 501 NM west-northwest of Darwin, Australia
Tropical Cyclone 27S…is located approximately 690 NM northwest of Learmonth, Australia

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/26S_050000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 26S

Sustained 45 knot winds…with gusts to 55 knots (as of Warning Number 3)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a ragged but consolidating system that is quasi-stationary in the Suva Sea just southwest of Timor.

TC 26S is in a favorable environment with good radial outflow and low to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear aloft, and warm sea surface temperature in the Suva Sea.

The favorable conditions are expected to persist along the forecast track and promote steady intensification to a peak of 100 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system down to 85 knots by 120 hours.

Numerical models are in fairly tight agreement up to 48 hours. Afterward, significant spreading occurs to over 500 NM by 120 hours. This is likely due to the large variance among the models binary interaction with newly-formed TC 27S, currently in the Indian ocean south of Christmas Island, projected to approach TC 26S toward the latter hours. This lends overall low confidence in the JTWC track.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/27S_041800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 27S

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 1)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized system with two areas of deep flaring convection. The low level circulation is obscured by the smaller area with the bigger area to the east embedded in a large formative band, loosely wrapping toward the low level center. Another band, albeit much shallower and more fragmented, is feeding in from the south.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, robust poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures. These are offset by cold dry air intrusion from the southwest.

After 24 hours, TC 27S will track more eastward. Then after 48 hours, the system will turn more poleward, as a near equatorial ridge to the southeast assumes steering. Concurrently, a binary interaction with TC 26S will commence.

The marginally favorable environment will fuel a slow intensification to a peak of 65 knots. Afterward, the cyclone will rapidly weaken to 50 knots by 120 hours, as outflow from TC 26S, being the larger and more dominant cyclone…will begin to suppress TC 27S.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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