Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    12 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 257 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    41 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    46 minutes ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 23, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Sub-Tropical Storm 02W (Surigae)…is located 570 NM west of Iwo To
Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) is located 194 NM east-southeast of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_231800sair.jpg

Sub-Tropical Storm 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 55 knot winds…with gusts to 70 knots (as of Warning Number 43)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Looping, wide view satellite image…showing TS Surigae

According to the JTWC, over the past six hours, TS 02W has transitioned to a subtropical structure featuring a rapidly expanding wind field and displacement of remaining convection well to the east of the exposed low-level center. Wind shear, driven by the flow associated with a trough over the system, exceeds 30 knots, and the system is moving over an area of cooler sea surface temperatures.

TS 02W will continue to weaken in the near-term as wind shear persists, and the system passes over slightly cooler ocean water. However, the weakening trend will be limited, due to the interaction with aforementioned shortwave trough over the system.

TS 02W is expected to turn eastward and slightly equatorward over the next 36 hours, following the flow associated with reorienting subtropical ridging to the south and west, and ahead of an amplifying, deep-layer mid-latitude trough developing to the north. Around or just after 36 hours, this amplifying trough is expected to dig far enough equatorward to directly interact with TS 02W.

Transition from a subtropical to extratropical structure will occur as 02W merges with this trough, with full transition anticipated by 48 hours. Favorable interaction between the mid-latitude trough and 02W will aid strengthening of the wind field after 36 hours, resulting in a re-intensification to storm force (50 knots) or above.

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/29S_231800sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo)

Sustained 35 knot winds…with gusts to 45 knots (as of Warning Number 7)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, TC 29S is tracking toward an expected landfall near Dar es Salaam, Tanzania around 48 hours, under the steering influence of subtropical ridging to the south. Much of the deep convection associated with the system has dissipated over the past 12 hours, as the compact circulation contends with a layer of dry air in the mid-levels.

TC 29S will continue tracking west-northwestward and steadily dissipate throughout the forecast period under the current steering and environmental influences, falling below the warning threshold intensity of 35 knots prior to landfall.

There is a significant amount of spread in the models, although regardless of the exact track, the system will very likely move inland as a weak remnant circulation.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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