Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km WSW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 21, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 378 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines
Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo) is located 513 NM north of Antananarivo, Madagascar

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_220000sair.jpg

Typhoon 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 100 knot winds…with gusts to 125 knots (as of Warning Number 35)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Looping, wide view satellite image…showing TY Surigae

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that Surigae continues to slowly weaken, with cloud tops continuing to warm and the western side of the convective mass showing signs of some mid-level westerly pressure. Additionally, though the large eye remains intact, the width of the convective band has become very thin on the western side, hinting at the presence of mid-level drier air and stronger westerly winds.

The system is tracking slowly northward, while environmental conditions remain generally favorable, though becoming increasingly marginal. Shear remains low 8-10 knots, and the upper-level outflow remains strong, particularly poleward. As the system has slowed down as it approaches the ridge, it has moved over its own wake, resulting in relatively cooler sea surface temperatures.

TY Surigae will round the ridge by 12 hours and begin accelerating towards the east-northeast along the northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast. By 48 hours, the ridge will weaken and reposition to the southeast, while a major shortwave trough dives southward out of the Sea of Japan, leading to a east-southeastward track through 72 hours.

Continued slow weakening is expected over the next 12-24 hours, primarily in response to the persistent mid-level dry air and the impact of cooler sea surface temperatures. By 36 hours, a major shortwave trough currently over Eastern China will rapidly move over TY Surigae, and imparting rapidly increasing westerly shear (30-35 knots) and convergent flow aloft, generating a steady and rapid weakening trend through 72 hours.

Surigae is forecast to steadily weaken through 120 hours as high shear and marginal sea surface temperatures offset the robust outflow into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track and intensity forecast remains highly dependent on the details of a trough and its interaction with Surigae, and thus both track and intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours are highly uncertain.

 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/29S_211200sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 29S (Jobo)

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 3)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery verifies the rapid consolidation and development of TC 29S, with a weak eye like feature becoming evident in the visible and infrared image. A microwave image exhibited deep convective banding wrapping around about 75 percent of the low level circulation, forming a clear 12 NM microwave eye

Overall, TC Jobo lies in a favorable environment, with expanding cirrus outflow to the west indicative of an improved shear environment. Robust poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures round out the favorable conditions allowing for the recent period of rapid intensification.

The system is forecast to continue tracking west to west-northwest through the forecast period, and is expected to make landfall along the central coast of Tanzania just after 96 hours.

Shear is expected to remain low through 24 hours, allowing for further intensification to a peak of 75 knots. Thereafter, the passage of an upper-level trough to the south will induce increased shear, resulting in a fairly rapid weakening through 72 hours. As the trough moves off to the east and shear relaxes once again, a brief period of re-intensification is forecast prior to landfall…followed by dissipation once inland.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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