Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 257 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    28 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    34 minutes ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 20, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 295 NM northeast of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_210000sair.jpg

Typhoon 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 31)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that TY Surigae continues to maintain a large 65 NM wide eye, which has a warm center.

Through 24 hours, Surigae will continue tracking north-northwestward to the east of Luzon along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge to the east. Surigae’s forward speed has increased to a slightly brisker 07 knots, which is likely fast enough to prevent ocean cooling beneath the typhoon from causing weakening,
although slow enough that intensification is not expected.

The large and stable core size also favors little intensity change until the atmospheric environment becomes more hostile. This is expected to occur beginning around 36 hours, as a shortwave trough within the subtropical jet approaches from southeastern china, dramatically increasing wind shear to around 30 knots. Steady weakening is expected to ensue after 36 hours, as the typhoon accelerates northeastward and then eastward into the mid-latitude westerlies.

Around 72 hours, the aforementioned shortwave is expected to interact directly with Surigae. Model solutions diverge at this point. The GFS positions Surigae directly beneath the base of the shortwave, inducing rapid weakening as the trough axis outruns the typhoon. Other models such as the Japanese GSM and Canadian GEM position Surigae farther ahead of the shortwave, allowing intensity to remain higher for longer. the current forecast splits between these outcomes, showing weakening below typhoon force after 72 hours.

After 72 hours, Surigae will interact with a low-level thermal gradient south of Japan, as well as the upper-level
shortwave to its northwest. While models depict a range of possible arrangements of these features, the increasingly baroclinic environment around the cyclone is expected to induce the onset of extratropical transition (et).

The forecast is highly dependent on the details of et, and thus both model track and intensity spread is high after 72 hours. The current forecast track has been nudged southward at 96 and 120 hours toward the multi-model consensus, which has shifted southward during the past 24 hours. Weakening to 45 knots by 120 hours…within a high shear environment

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/95S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210420.133000.SH952021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.30kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 410 NM east-northeast of Comoros Islands

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows deep flaring convection building over a consolidating low-level circulation center.

Invest 95S is in an environment conducive for intensification, with fair equatorward outflow aloft, low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 95S will track westward as it intensifies and passes north of Madagascar over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30-35 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Connect with us