Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    30 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 257 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    58 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 19, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 305 NM east of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_200000sair.jpg

Typhoon 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 115 knot winds…with gusts to 140 knots (as of Warning Number 27)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a very intense and highly symmetrical system that has maintained a deep, albeit slightly warmed, central dense overcast with a large and well-defined 34 NM eye.

Analysis indicates the environment remains favorable with good radial outflow, low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

TY 02W will slowly speed up out of the col and continue on its north-northwestward track as the ridge to the west quickly deflates and the ridge to the east builds, elongates meridionally, and becomes the primary steering mechanism.

After 48 hours, it will turn more north-northeastward and crest the ridge axis. Increasing wind shear and diminishing outflow aloft will gradually weaken the system down to 85 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, TY Surigae will accelerate east-northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge. The addition of cooling sea surface temperatures will weaken the system faster and by 120 hours, will be reduced to 50 knots.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/95S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210420.020000.SH952021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 580 NM north-northwest of Mauritius.

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation with some low level banding and flaring convection.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, moderate outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in general agreement that invest 95S will track westward with some intensification near northern Madagascar in 1-2 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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