Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    56 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km WSW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 18, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Typhoon 02W (Surigae)…is located 308 NM east of Manila, Philippines

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_190000sair.jpg

Typhoon 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 125 knot winds…with gusts to 150 knots (as of Warning Number 23)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a system that remains intense, with a warm center and convective tops over a large symmetrical central dense overcast maintaining a pinhole 8 NM eye.

Analysis indicates a slightly unfavorable environment with the low 5-10 knot wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, offset by diminishing poleward outflow currently being suppressed by the mid-latitude trough migrating to the north.

TY 02W will continue tracking north-northwest as the steering ridge elongates meridionally through 48 hours, thereafter, the system will near the apex of the ridge by 72 hours. The diminishing outflow offsetting the low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, will primarily be responsible for its gradual weakening…down to 95 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, TY Surigae will crest the ridge, recurve and accelerate northeastward. As Surigae moves to higher latitudes, the increasing wind shear and much cooler sea surface temperatures will begin to rapidly decay the intensity to 65 knots by 72 hours. Simultaneously, the system will begin extratropical transition.

 

 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc21/SHEM/95S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20210419.014500.SH952021.seviri.msg-4.Infrared-Gray.20kts.84p0.1p0.jpg

There’s a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 95S, which is located approximately 721 NM west-southwest of Diego Garcia

Here’s was the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a recent flare of convection obscuring a low level circulation with low level banding.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment for development characterized by low 10-15 knot wind shear, poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in marginal agreement that invest 95S will propagate westward with minor development near northern Madagascar. GFS and ECMWF are outliers indicating development to TC strength within the next 72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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