Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    26 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    18 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 257 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    46 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    52 minutes ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 16, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 264 NM northwest of Kayangel, Palau

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_170000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 120 knot winds…with gusts to 145 knots (as of Warning Number 15)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows an eye popping through the central convection.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for continued intensification with low <15 knot wind shear, robust equatorward and improving poleward outflow aloft, and warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea.

Typhoon 02W is forecast to track to the northwest through 48 hours. By 48 hours the ridge to the east builds and takes over as the primary steering mechanism, causing TY 02W to turn northward.

The system will steadily intensify due to robust upper-level outflow amplified by the mid-latitude trough, with TY 02W reaching peak intensity of 120 knots by 48 hours.

Numerical model guidance has diverged further from the previous warning with ecmwf and the ecmwf ensemble mean tracking northwestward through 120 hours, making landfall on Luzon just prior to 120 hours. The most recent gfs run has now tracked further west before recurving, whereas all other models recurve more quickly.

The environmental conditions will become less favorable as the amount of upper-level divergence decreases significantly by 96 hours, causing the system to decrease to 90 knots by 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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