Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 286 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    11 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    26 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    52 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 257 km S of Sinabang, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    10 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 15, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 42 NM north of Kayangel, Palau

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_160000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 75 knot winds…with gusts to 90 knots (as of Warning Number 11)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows central cold cover continues to build up directly over the low-level circulation center, completely obscuring the position of the center.

Environmental analysis indicates an overall favorable environment for development with low 10-15 knot wind shear,
despite outflow aloft contained to the western semicircle. Very warm sea surface temperature in the Philippine Sea improves the overall environment for development.

Typhoon 02W is forecast to gradually transition to a northwestward track. The system will steadily intensify as the pressure on the eastern side gradually subsides, leading to robust, dual channel outflow that will significantly improve the environment for development, with TY 02W reaching 95 knots by 48 hours…and 115 knots by 72 hours.

After 72 hours, the break in the ridge results in the ridge to the east taking over as the primary steering mechanism, sending TY Surigae poleward as it tracks around the western periphery of this ridge.

The environmental conditions will become slightly less favorable as the amount of upper-level divergence decreases and sea surface temperatures lower through the end of the forecast period. The system will decrease down to 100 knots by 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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