Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 73 km ENE of Namie, Japan

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Victorville (Pine Fire), California - United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Yavapai County (Tussock Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 151 km SSE of Punta de Burica, Panama

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Depression - Three

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Wooster, OH Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Minden, LA Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Pacaya, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 53 km N of Goroka, Papua New Guinea

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - Kermadec Islands region

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 193 km SSE of Alo, Wallis and Futuna

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 231 km ESE of Attu Station, Alaska

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Somalia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Oman

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - U.S. Virgin Islands

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Brazil

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Uvernet-Fours Commune, France

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Soufrière St. Vincent, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 107 km SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Khabarovsk Krai, Russia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bluffton, IN Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nyamasheke, Rwanda

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 10 km E of Pampa de Tate, Peru

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storms - India

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Philippines

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Thailand

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 50 km SW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 62 km WSW of Acajutla, El Salvador

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Drought - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 254 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Northern Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Marinilla Municipality, Antioquia, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Loreto, Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - Mauritius - Reunion region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Afghanistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Tajikistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola - Guinea

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    9 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    9 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
April 14, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)…is located 105 NM west-southwest of Yap

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/02W_150000sair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Surigae)

Sustained 50 knot winds…with gusts to 65 knots (as of Warning Number 7)

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows the system has maintained overall convective signature with the main convection slightly offset westward from an obscured low level circulation.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with robust dual outflow, low to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperature in the Philippine Sea.

The favorable environment will fuel steady intensification to 70 knots by 48 hours. Afterward, rapid intensification is expected as the favorable conditions are further enhanced by increasing poleward outflow and decreasing wind shear, and by 72 hours, reach 95 knots.

After 72 hours, a mid-latitude trough digging in from eastern Asia will break the ridge. In response, TS Surigae will track more poleward as the eastern side of the ridge will assume steering and by 96 hours, will drive the cyclone north-northeastward toward the break.

Concurrently, the highly favorable conditions will extend the rapid intensification, and bring TC 02W to a peak of 120 knots. Afterward, increasing wind shear will gradually erode the system to 110 knots by 120 hours.

 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

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