CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)…is located about 302 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Mindy)…is located about 35 miles east-northeast of Apalachicola, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)
LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE
According the NHC Advisory 34…Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become fully post-tropical by Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.
A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Additional development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Mindy)
CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY
According the NHC Advisory 2…Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight.
TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.