CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)…is located about 660 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)
LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC…LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK
According the NHC Advisory 30…Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.
Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Gulf of Mexico
What the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 91L
Showers and thunderstorms have increased today over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.
The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become more conducive for some limited tropical or subtropical cyclone development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent