CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)…is located about 900 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)
LARRY REMAINS A LARGE FORMIDABLE HURRICANE…EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK
According the NHC Advisory 26…Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
What the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 91L
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance.
The system is forecast to move slowly northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely reaching the northern Gulf coast in a few days.
Although upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation in a couple of days.
The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent