CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Peter)…is located about 175 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Rose)…is located about 1020 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Peter)
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRONG SHEAR
According to the NHC Advisory 14…The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by late tomorrow, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to Hispaniola later today and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Rose)
ROSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
According to the NHC Advisory 12…The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, however Rose is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased since this morning and are beginning to show signs of organization. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed, but the system lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located about 500 miles west of the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a small counter-clockwise loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent