CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Peter)…is located about 110 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Rose)…is located about 775 miles west-northwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 16L (Peter)
RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR…EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY
According to the NHC Advisory 10…Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the northeastern quadrant.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Rose)
ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW
According to the NHC Advisory 8…Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Rose is forecast to turn north-northwestward to northward on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated overnight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday, and should continue during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are still showing some signs of organization, although there does not appear to be a surface circulation at this time. Upper-level winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located several hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean, before it moves northward over cooler waters over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent