Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

  • Earthquake - 4.9 - 4km NE of Westmorland, CA

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 37 km NNE of Pangai, Tonga

    55 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oakdale, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - near the Tonga Islands - 6.7

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Hawaiian Islands) - Tonga - 6.7

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - Tonga - 6.7

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Makhachkala, Dagestan - Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - W of Nokaneng, North-West - Botswana

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Rundu, Kavango - Namibia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Grootfontein, Otjozondjupa - Namibia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Barreiras, Bahia - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Gurupi, Tocantins - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Balsas, Maranho - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Floriano, Piau - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Pozo Colorado, Presidente Hayes - Paraguay

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of San Jos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Alvorada, Tocantins - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Rio Cuarto, Crdoba - Argentina

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of San Bernardino (EL Dorado), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Plumas and Lassen Counties (North Complex), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Monterey County (Dolan Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Mendocino County (August Complex), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Shasta County (Zogg Fire), California, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Santa Rosa (Glass Fire), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Arcata (Red Salmon Complex), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Visalia (SQF Complex), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 75 km ENE of Bacolod, Philippines

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Marie

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - S of Monte Quemado, Santiago del Estero - Argentina

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Villa Carlos Paz, Crdoba - Argentina

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangladesh

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Scotland, United Kingdom

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ibanda, Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pakistan

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Scottsdale (Sears Fire), Arizona - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Springfield (Holiday Farm Fire), Oregon - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (Fox Fire), California, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pasadena (Bobcat Fire),, California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Salem (Beachie Creek Lions Head Complex), Oregon - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 103 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Roseburg (Archie Creek Fire), Oregon - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nunukan Regency, North Kalimantan, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Smithfield, NC Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 34 km ENE of Yilan, Taiwan

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - Douglas County (Thielsen Fire), Oregon, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Clackamas County (Riverside Fire), Oregon, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 93 km NNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Wauchula, FL Region, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kachin, Myanmar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ashanti, Ghana

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Chad

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - White Nile, South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northern Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    6 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 16, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES: 
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 30 miles south-southeast of Montgomery, Alabama
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 670 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)is located 860 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/13/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif

http://maps.wxmap2.com/plt_loop/prw.gfs2.2020091218.lant.loop.gif

 

Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/refresh/AL202020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204325_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/20L.TEDDY/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200916.2330.goes16.x.ir1km_bw.20LTEDDY.85kts-973mb-171N-504W.100pc.jpg

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 19…Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL212020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144127_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/21L.VICKY/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200916.2330.goes16.x.ir1km_bw.21LVICKY.35kts-1008mb-214N-353W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 12…Vicky is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a west-southwestward motion for a day or two after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a remnant low by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

>>> An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

>>> A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean: 

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico: 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/19L.SALLY/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20200916.2230.goes17.x.vis1km_high.19LSALLY.60kts-982mb-309N-871W.100pc.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205735_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150347_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/EVX_loop.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCQPF+gif/150347WPCQPF_sm.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCERO+gif/205735WPCERO_sm.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_tracks_latest.png

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)

According to the NHC Advisory 24…The depression is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low on Friday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…4-7 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL…2-4 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay…2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue this afternoon within portions of the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

>>> An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

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