CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 30 miles south-southeast of Montgomery, Alabama
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 670 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)…is located 860 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 19…Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 12…Vicky is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a west-southwestward motion for a day or two after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a remnant low by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
>>> An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)
According to the NHC Advisory 24…The depression is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low on Friday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding.
Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals:
Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.
Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding.
Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…4-7 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL…2-4 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay…2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue this afternoon within portions of the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.
SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico