CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas…is located about 90 miles west of Alexandria, Louisiana
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Satellite images indicate that a low pressure system located a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast.
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas
NICHOLAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
According to the NHC Advisory 16…The depression is currently stationary, but is expected to gradually move northward over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with a few higher gusts over water. The center of Nicholas may become ill-defined over the next couple of days as it evolves into a post-tropical remnant low with minimal thunderstorm activity near its center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches across the central Gulf coast in southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Friday, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches possible. Considerable flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions.
Widespread minor river flooding is expected, while scattered moderate river flooding is possible, across portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.