Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 37 km NNE of Pangai, Tonga

    14 minutes ago WATCH

  • Flood - Lake Charles, LA Region, United States

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 4.9 - 4km NE of Westmorland, CA

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oakdale, LA Region, United States

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - near the Tonga Islands - 6.7

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Hawaiian Islands) - Tonga - 6.7

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - Tonga - 6.7

    33 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Makhachkala, Dagestan - Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - W of Nokaneng, North-West - Botswana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Rundu, Kavango - Namibia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Grootfontein, Otjozondjupa - Namibia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Barreiras, Bahia - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Gurupi, Tocantins - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Balsas, Maranho - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Floriano, Piau - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Pozo Colorado, Presidente Hayes - Paraguay

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of San Jos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Alvorada, Tocantins - Brazil

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Rio Cuarto, Crdoba - Argentina

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of San Bernardino (EL Dorado), California - United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Plumas and Lassen Counties (North Complex), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Monterey County (Dolan Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Mendocino County (August Complex), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Shasta County (Zogg Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Santa Rosa (Glass Fire), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Arcata (Red Salmon Complex), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Visalia (SQF Complex), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 75 km ENE of Bacolod, Philippines

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Marie

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - S of Monte Quemado, Santiago del Estero - Argentina

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Detroit, MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Villa Carlos Paz, Crdoba - Argentina

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangladesh

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Scotland, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Ibanda, Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pakistan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Scottsdale (Sears Fire), Arizona - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Springfield (Holiday Farm Fire), Oregon - United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (Fox Fire), California, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pasadena (Bobcat Fire),, California - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Salem (Beachie Creek Lions Head Complex), Oregon - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 103 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Roseburg (Archie Creek Fire), Oregon - United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nunukan Regency, North Kalimantan, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Smithfield, NC Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 34 km ENE of Yilan, Taiwan

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - Douglas County (Thielsen Fire), Oregon, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Clackamas County (Riverside Fire), Oregon, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 93 km NNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Wauchula, FL Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kachin, Myanmar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ashanti, Ghana

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Chad

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - White Nile, South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northern Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    6 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 15, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 415 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 65 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 865 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)is located 710 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/13/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif

http://maps.wxmap2.com/plt_loop/prw.gfs2.2020091218.lant.loop.gif

 

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/023357_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150138_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC Advisory 37…Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/refresh/AL202020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204325_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 14…Teddy is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane overnight. Teddy could then be near major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL212020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144127_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/21L.VICKY/vis/geo/1km/20200915.1530.goes16.x.vis1km.21LVICKY.45kts-1004mb-204N-306W.100pc.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 8…Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Satellite-derived winds indicate that Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

>>> Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

>>> A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean: 

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico: 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205735_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150347_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/EVX_loop.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCQPF+gif/150347WPCQPF_sm.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCERO+gif/205735WPCERO_sm.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_peak_surge+png/215703_peak_surge.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_tracks_latest.png

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)

According to the NHC Advisory 19…Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…4-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne…4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border…3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay…3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay…1-3 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

>>> An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

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