CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas…is located about 15 miles west-northwest of Port Arthur, Texas
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
>>> A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week.
Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas
NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
According to the NHC Advisory 12…The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.
Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA…2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay…1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area across the upper Texas coast through this morning, and begin along the Louisiana coast later this morning.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana.
SURF: swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.