Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    37 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Lehututu, Kgalagadi - Botswana

    37 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - W of Nokaneng, North-West - Botswana

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Rundu, Kavango - Namibia

    38 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Grootfontein, Otjozondjupa - Namibia

    39 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Puerto Quijarro, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    51 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Barreiras, Bahia - Brazil

    51 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Gurupi, Tocantins - Brazil

    52 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Balsas, Maranho - Brazil

    52 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Floriano, Piau - Brazil

    52 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Pozo Colorado, Presidente Hayes - Paraguay

    53 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of San Jos, Santa Cruz - Bolivia

    53 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Alvorada, Tocantins - Brazil

    53 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Rio Cuarto, Crdoba - Argentina

    54 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of San Bernardino (EL Dorado), California - United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Plumas and Lassen Counties (North Complex), California, United States

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Monterey County (Dolan Fire), California, United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Mendocino County (August Complex), California, United States

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Shasta County (Zogg Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Santa Rosa (Glass Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Carbon County (Mullen Fire), Wyoming, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Arcata (Red Salmon Complex), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Visalia (SQF Complex), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Larimer County (Cameron Peak Fire), Colorado, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Fresno (Creek Fire), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 75 km ENE of Bacolod, Philippines

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - N of Makhachkala, Dagestan - Russia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Hurricane - Marie

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - S of Monte Quemado, Santiago del Estero - Argentina

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Detroit, MI Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Villa Carlos Paz, Crdoba - Argentina

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangladesh

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Scotland, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern England, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Ibanda, Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pakistan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Crescent City (Slater and Devil Fires), California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Scottsdale (Sears Fire), Arizona - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Springfield (Holiday Farm Fire), Oregon - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (Fox Fire), California, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pasadena (Bobcat Fire),, California - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Salem (Beachie Creek Lions Head Complex), Oregon - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 103 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Roseburg (Archie Creek Fire), Oregon - United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Nunukan Regency, North Kalimantan, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Smithfield, NC Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 34 km ENE of Yilan, Taiwan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - Douglas County (Thielsen Fire), Oregon, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Clackamas County (Riverside Fire), Oregon, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 93 km NNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Port Arthur, TX Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Wauchula, FL Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mullins, SC Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kachin, Myanmar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Medan City, North Sumatra, Indonesia

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ashanti, Ghana

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Chad

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - White Nile, South Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northern Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Chikungunya - Chad

    6 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
September 13, 2020
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 40 miles North of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)...is located is located 1115 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 165 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)is located 350 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/13/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif

http://maps.wxmap2.com/plt_loop/prw.gfs2.2020091218.lant.loop.gif

 

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/023357_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150138_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

What the computer models are showing

According to the NHC Advisory 30A…Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette’s eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/115107_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 29The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday.

 

Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/refresh/AL202020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204325_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 7…Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT21/refresh/AL212020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144127_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)

What the computer models show

According to the NHC Advisory 2…Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night and Vicky is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

>>> A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean: 

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico: 

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc20/ATL/19L.SALLY/ir/geo/1km_bw/20200913.2330.goes17.x.ir1km_bw.19LSALLY.50kts-998mb-277N-856W.100pc.jpg

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205735_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/150347_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCQPF+gif/150347WPCQPF_sm.gif

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL1920WPCERO+gif/205735WPCERO_sm.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_tracks_latest.png

Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)

According to the NHC Advisory 11A…Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area and expected within the warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across southwestern Florida with isolated amounts of 6 inches along that coast through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across west-central Florida.

Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible farther inland across much of Mississippi and Alabama with further heavy rain anticipated for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers for Mississippi and Alabama. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.

SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak area of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves slowly southwestward and then southward over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

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