CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 275 miles north-northeast of Bermuda
Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)...is located is located 1045 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands – Last Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)…is located 130 miles southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)…is located 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)…is located 455 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 33…Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn eastward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will likely continue through the rest of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into the mid afternoon hours.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon.
RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene) – Last Advisory
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 31…The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion will likely continue for another day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds associated with the remnants of Rene should gradually subside during the next day or so.
Tropical Cyclone 20L (Teddy)
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 10…Teddy is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected overnight through Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days. Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 21L (Vicki)
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 4…Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
>>> A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 19L (Sally)
According to the NHC Advisory 15…Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today.
RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.
Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.
Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region.
Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.
SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently producing little shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico