CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas…is located about 240 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande
Showers and thunderstorms are very limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, located a few hundred miles east of the Azores. Significant development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward. By late Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone Nicholas
WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD
According to the NHC Advisory 3…Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume by early Monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.