CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)…is located 750 miles southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)...is located is located 1260 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 19L…is located 25 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Paulette)
What the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 21…Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND:
Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday.
RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 18L (Rene)
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 20…Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a slower north-northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
>>> A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> Another area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located just off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Tropical Cyclone 19L
What the computer models show
According to the NHC Advisory 2…The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida during the next several hours, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a tropical storm Saturday night or Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in south Florida overnight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected across the western Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding.
SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico