CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)…is located about 235 miles southwest of Cape Race, NewFoundland
Tropical Cyclone 12L (Larry)
LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND…EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT
According the NHC Advisory 41A…Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Canadian buoy 44139 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.
A strong tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent