CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)…is located about 70 miles northeast of Cameron, Louisiana
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)
DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
Here’s what the computer models are showing
NWS Looping radar image from New Orleans/Baton Rouge, Louisiana
According to the NHC Advisory 22…Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River…2-4 ft
Lake Borgne…2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning within this area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas during the next several hours.
RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.
As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico