CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)…is located about 250 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph, and environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development this weekend or early next week while the system is over the tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)
DELTA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 18A…Delta is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast during the next few hours, followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on today, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta’s eastern eyewall recently reported a sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant wave height of about 35 feet (almost 11 meters).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay… 7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA…4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS…2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay… 1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday.
RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, for southwest into south central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi
SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico