CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)…is located about 485 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 26L (Delta)
DELTA STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 14A…Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next several hours. A turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight followed by a north-northeastward motion on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday.
Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA…4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by Friday morning.
RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding.
Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.
SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico