CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 25L (Gamma)…is located 180 miles east-northeast of Progresso, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 26L…is located 95 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 26L
According to the NHC Advisory 2A…The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass just south of Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday.
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 25L (Gamma)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 11A… The tropical storm is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late today and on Tuesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Monday and Tuesday.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico