CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones at this time
A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by locally rainfall and gusty winds. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 91L
A broad area of low pressure has developed over the west-central Caribbean Sea just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are slowly becoming better organized, and a NOAA buoy northeast of the center has reported winds to near tropical storm force during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or Saturday, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico