CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (Eta)…is located 40 miles northeast of Key West, Florida
Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (ETA)
Eta made landfall in central Cuba early Sunday morning. The storm is expected to impact Florida tonight with rain, wind, storm surge and high surf. Locally heavy rain may persist in Florida into Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Eta has made history, matching the strength of the strongest storm of this active 2020 hurricane season (Hurricane Laura)…when its winds peaked at 150 mph earlier this week.
ETA IS VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA…STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
Looping radar from southern Florida
According the NHC Advisory 35A…Eta is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west to west- southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida during the next few hours, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. An observation in Everglades National Park recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning:
Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).
The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay…2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico