CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (Eta)…is located 125 miles west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba
Tropical Cyclone 29L (ETA)
Tropical storm Eta, that was previously Hurricane Eta, remains over the Caribbean Sea. This in turn is providing warm water for strengthening, and as a matter of fact, the water over this general area is some of the warmest of the entire Atlantic basin…as high as 84 degrees.
Tropical Cyclone Eta has made history, matching the strength of the strongest storm of this active 2020 hurricane season (Hurricane Laura)…when its winds peaked at 150 mph earlier this week.
ETA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS…FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA
According the NHC Advisory 31A…Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba during the next few hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on late Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba, but Eta is forecast to re-strengthen later today and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and moves near or over Florida.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning:
Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm).
The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay…2-3 ft
Florida Keys…2-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico