CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (Eta)…is located 310 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman
Tropical depression Eta, that was previously Hurricane Eta, has emerged back over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This in turn will provide warm water for strengthening, and as a matter of fact, the water over the northwestern Caribbean is some of the warmest of the entire Atlantic basin…as high as 84 degrees. Eta could reach hurricane force again on its way toward Cuba and potentially Florida by Sunday evening.
Tropical Cyclone Eta has already made history, and matched the strength of the strongest storm of this active 2020 hurricane season (Hurricane Laura)…when its winds peaked at 150 mph earlier this week.
ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY
Tropical Cyclone 29L (ETA)
According the NHC Advisory 26A…the depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning:
Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.
Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).
The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and southern Florida.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay…2-3 ft
Florida Keys…2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico