CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 31L (Iota)…is located 40 miles southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Tropical Cyclone 31L (Iota)
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON…CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According the NHC advisory 15A…Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, Iota will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua this morning, and move across southern Honduras Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Rapid weakening is expected to continue today and Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota’s eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras by tonight.
RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday:
Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras.
El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).
This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).
SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico