CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (Eta)…is located 65 miles northwest of Tampa, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 30L (Theta)…is located 540 miles south-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 30L (Theta)
THETA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According the NHC advisory 9…Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the east with a slower forward speed by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.
Here’s what the computer models are showing
A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized and a tropical depression will likely form by the weekend as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Cyclone 29L (ETA)
Tropical Cyclone Eta has made history, matching the strength of the strongest storm of this active 2020 hurricane season (Hurricane Laura)…when its winds peaked at 150 mph earlier this week.
ETA CAUSING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
Looping radar from Tampa, Florida
According the NHC Advisory 47A…Eta is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast this morning.
On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late today and early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida during the next few hours, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs later today.
Eta is forecast to dissipate over the western Atlantic Ocean by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
A National Ocean Service station near Clearwater Beach recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A University of South Florida station in Fred Howard Park near Tarpon Springs recently measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay…3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River…2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:
Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).
West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.
North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.
Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico