CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa) is located 170 miles southwest of Atlantic City, New Jersey…according to the NHC Advisory 36
ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY…FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night.
The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mostly southeast of the center.
A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:
Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.
Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure, over south Texas, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Although development of this system is not anticipated since it is expected to drift westward and remain over land, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent