CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa) is located 105 miles north-northwest of Brunswick, Georgia…according to the NHC Advisory 32A
Gulf of Mexico
CENTER OF ELSA MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GEORGIA…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph. A turn toward the northeast is expected this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion later today.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North Carolina later today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday.
Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States.
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mostly southeast of the center near the coast. A few hours ago, wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph were reported from Weatherflow stations near Tybee Island, Georgia, in a severe thunderstorm in an outer rain band.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:
Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula…additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Low country of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia…1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.
Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.
1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolina’s during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday.