CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa) is located 60 miles west of Tampa, Florida…according to the NHC Advisory 28A
Gulf of Mexico
ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward just west of due north near 14 mph, and a general northward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning.
Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall occurs on Tuesday.
Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 52 mph.
Hazards Affecting Land
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor…2 to 4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas…1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC…1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week:
Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula…3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Across the rest of Florida…2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia…1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding..
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.