CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa) is located 50 miles north of Havana, Cuba…according to the NHC Advisory 23A
Gulf of Mexico
ELSA NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS… …CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today and continuing into Wednesday. Satellite data and NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight before Elsa moves inland over Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently measured at the Key West International Airport.
Hazards Affecting Land
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning Tuesday night.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…
Southern coast of Cuba…2 to 4 feet
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor…2 to 4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas…1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.