CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa) is located 245 miles south of Havana, Cuba…according to the NHC Advisory 19A
ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA…CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and head toward the Florida Straits tonight, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
Hazards Affecting Land
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…
Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL…1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.
Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week.