CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Isaias)…is located about 45 miles southeast of Great Inagua Island
1.) An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression today while it moves northward at about 10 mph before environmental conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days..medium…40 percent
>>> A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible while it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
According to the NHC Advisory 12A, Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the southeastern Bahamas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.
Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.
Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.
These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea
Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico:
Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico