CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa)…is located 110 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST…CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday.
By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur Sunday night and Monday when Elsa will be moving over Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.
STORM SURGE:A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…
Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas…1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding with mudslides in Cuba.
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.