CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 05L (Elsa)…is located 620 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
Here’s what the computer models are showing
Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late today or tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today, but slow weakening is expected to begin tonight or Sunday as Elsa interacts with the landmasses of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas
Southern coast of Cuba…4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet
Jamaica…1 to 3 feet
Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.