CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)…is located about 20 miles north-northwest of Jackson, Mississippi
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Kate)…is located about 805 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Kate)
KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 10L (Kate)
According the NHC Advisory 11…Kate is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is possible by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center in the eastern semicircle.
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just off the west coast of Africa. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mostly on its south side. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development by the end of the week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
According the NHC Advisory 19…The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight. Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne…4-6 ft Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA…2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA…1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay…1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama through this morning or early afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther inland.
Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:
Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning.
Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.
Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.
Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.