CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)…is located about 30 miles east-southeast of Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Tropical Cyclone 10L…is located about 760 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands
Post-Tropical Cyclone 11L (Julian)…is located about 810 miles west of the Azores – Last Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 10L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 10L
According the NHC Advisory 8…The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northward motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin by midweek.
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Julian) – Last Advisory
JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 11L (Julian)
According the NHC Advisory 5…The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the low on Monday and Tuesday, and any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly southeastward and then eastward, away from the east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
According the NHC Advisory 16…Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New Orleans International Airport.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne…8-12 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA…6-9 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS…6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay…4-6 ft Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay…1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.
Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:
Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning.
Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night.
Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.
These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine flooding.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.