CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)…is located about 145 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Tropical Cyclone 10L…is located about 785 miles east of the Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 11L…is located about 1320 miles west of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 10L
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 10L
According the NHC Advisory 4…The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected later tonight, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early next week.
Tropical Cyclone 11L
NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC…EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 11L
According the NHC Advisory 1…The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected through Sunday, and the depression is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later tonight or tomorrow. The system is then forecast to become extratropical by Monday.
>>> A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING
Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)
According the NHC Advisory 11…Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…2-4 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys this morning.
RAINFALL: Ida will bring an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.
As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in significant flash and riverine flooding impacts.
Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.