Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

  • Tropical Cyclone - Three

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Subtropical Storm - Teresa

    15 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Hurricane - Sam

    18 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 53 km NE of Anse-Bertrand, Guadeloupe

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Typhoon - Mindulle

    33 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 182 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    20 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - south of Africa

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 203 km N of Shi Yomi, India

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Novarupta, United States

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Tampa--St. Petersburg, FL Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bridgeport--Stamford, CT--NY Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Tulare, California - United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Redding (Fawn Fire), California - United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (McCash Fire), California, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Trinity County (Monument Fire), California, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brazil

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Bolivia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Broome, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Burketown, Queensland - Australia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Xique-Xique, Bahia - Brazil

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 141 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Nicobar Islands, India region

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 184 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 95 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 6.3

    20 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 142 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Luwu Regency, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Central Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bolaang Mongondow Regency, North Sulawesi,Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mindanao Island, Philippines

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Bone Bolango, Gorontalo, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 38 km S of Mount Buller, Australia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Odisha, India

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
August 27, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)…is located about 90 miles southwest of Havana, Cuba
 

Atlantic Ocean

What the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 97L

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a couple of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development, however, a tropical depression could still form by early next week. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

 

>>> What the computer models are showing for what’s being referred to as Invest 98L

Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has developed in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, shower and thunderstorm activity is limited near the center of the low. Some additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form Saturday or Saturday night before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward through tonight, then turn northward Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

 

>>> Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west African coast by the middle of next week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

 

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)

time of arrival graphic

[Image of cumulative wind history]

IDA NOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO…FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST

Here’s what the computer models are showing for Tropical Cyclone 09L (Ida)

According the NHC Advisory 7…Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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