CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…are located 65 miles west-northwest of Ciudad De, Mexico – Last Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 220 miles south of Providence, Rhode Island
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY
According to the NHC Advisory 25…Henri is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island on Sunday. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight. Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound…3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound…3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY…3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay…2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY…2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.
RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with two interacting tropical waves near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little, if any, development of this broad system is anticipated over the next couple of days. However, some gradual development is possible later on by the middle of next week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Remnants of Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace) – Last Advisory
GRACE WEAKENS TO A DISTURBANCE
According to the NHC Advisory 34…The remnants are moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Grace has dissipated, its remnants will likely move into the eastern North Pacific by Sunday afternoon, where it is likely to develop into a new tropical cyclone next week.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico for the next several hours.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi…6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.