CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 105 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 230 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED… …NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
According to the NHC Advisory 21…Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay….3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY…2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island…2-4 ft
Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI…2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to interact with another wave emerging off the African coast over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development by the beginning of next week as this system moves gradually to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE…LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT
According to the NHC Advisory 31…Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area later tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts, making Grace a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi…6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.