CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)…is located about 95 miles west of Portsmouth, New Hampshire
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 350 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 450 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND…INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS
According to the NHC Advisory 16…Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
According to the NHC Advisory 26A…Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next hour or two and are spreading inland. Tropical storm conditions will continue this morning along the coast and will spread across the rest of the northern Yucatan Peninsula today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula… 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo… 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center made landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Gulf of Mexico
Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
According to the NHC Advisory 41…The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:
RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches from New York across New England through tonight. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.
TORNADOES: A tornado is possible this morning over southeastern New York, Long Island, or southern New England.