CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)…is located about 185 miles west-southwest of Binghamton, New York
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 170 miles east of Tulum, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 235 miles southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE…INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS
According to the NHC Advisory 12…Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE
According to the NHC Advisory 22A…Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 40256, located west of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions are possible, over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz state….4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Jamaica.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Gulf of Mexico
Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE
According to the NHC Advisory 37…The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Through Tonight… Eastern Carolinas…additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches.
Through Thursday night… Upper Ohio Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic States into New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.
Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolina’s, Mid-Atlantic States, and New England could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.
TORNADOES:A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolina’s, and southwestern Virginia.