Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

  • Typhoon - Mindulle

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Subtropical Storm - Teresa

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Hurricane - Sam

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 53 km NE of Anse-Bertrand, Guadeloupe

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - La Palma, Spain

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Three

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Langila, Papua New Guinea

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 182 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - south of Africa

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semisopochnoi, United States

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 203 km N of Shi Yomi, India

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Novarupta, United States

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Tampa--St. Petersburg, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Bridgeport--Stamford, CT--NY Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Tulare, California - United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Redding (Fawn Fire), California - United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Siskiyou County (McCash Fire), California, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Trinity County (Monument Fire), California, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brazil

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Bolivia

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Broome, Western Australia - Australia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NW of Burketown, Queensland - Australia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 141 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - Nicobar Islands, India region

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 184 km WSW of Adak, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 95 miles SE of Amchitka, Alaska - 6.3

    22 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cambodia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 142 km SW of Empaque Tarriba, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 year ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Maine, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Luwu Regency, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Central Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bolaang Mongondow Regency, North Sulawesi,Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mindanao Island, Philippines

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Bone Bolango, Gorontalo, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Hong Kong

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 38 km S of Mount Buller, Australia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hispaniola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Odisha, India

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
August 18, 2021
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)…is located about 185 miles west-southwest of Binghamton, New York
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 170 miles east of Tulum, Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 235 miles southwest of Bermuda

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)

20210818.194020.AL082021.abi.goes-16.Infrared-Gray.60kts.100p0.1p0.jpg thumbnail

time of arrival graphic

What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)

HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE…INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS

According to the NHC Advisory 12…Henri is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Caribbean Sea

Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

20210818.122032.AL072021.abi.goes-17.Infrared-Gray.60kts.88p1.1p0.jpg thumbnail

time of arrival graphic

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/07L_tracks_latest.png

GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE

According to the NHC Advisory 22A…Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 40256, located west of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected, and hurricane conditions are possible, over the Cayman Islands through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Vera Cruz state….4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Jamaica.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Gulf of Mexico

Post-Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

Model Forecast Tracks

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE

According to the NHC Advisory 37…The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tonight… Eastern Carolinas…additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches.

Through Thursday night… Upper Ohio Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic States into New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolina’s, Mid-Atlantic States, and New England could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

TORNADOES:A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolina’s, and southwestern Virginia.

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