CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)…is located about 395 miles southwest of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)…is located 145 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)…is located 160 miles south of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Henri)
What the computer models are showing for TC 08L (Henri)
HENRI MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 65-MPH WINDS
According to the NHC Advisory 9…Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the west with a faster forward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by an additional turn to the west-northwest and northwest by late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND:Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island.
SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to begin affecting Bermuda later today.
Tropical Cyclone 07L (Grace)
GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA
According to the NHC Advisory 19…Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from the western coast of Jamaica overnight.
Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily to the east of the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Haiti…5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula….3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone 06L (Fred)
FRED MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHILE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOW
According to the NHC Advisory 34…The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to become northeasterly overnight and Wednesday before decelerating and taking on a more easterly track on Thursday while moving through southern New England.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible over the next couple of days as it tracks through the eastern United States.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND RAINFALL:
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians… 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.
Through Thursday Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic States…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today.
TORNADOES:A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolina’s, and southwestern Virginia.